Pas disa jav\u00ebsh tensione me Iranin dhe nj\u00eb grumbullimi t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb forcave ushtarake amerikane, situata \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzuar t\u00eb shtun\u00ebn me sulme t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebta amerikano-izraelite ndaj objektivave t\u00eb profilit t\u00eb lart\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb baza ushtarake iraniane dhe rezidencat e drejtuesve m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Teksa vala e par\u00eb e sulmeve sh\u00ebnjestroi pika t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme n\u00eb mbar\u00eb vendin, disa e b\u00ebjn\u00eb pashmangsh\u00ebm k\u00ebt\u00eb pyetje: cili \u00ebsht\u00eb objektivi p\u00ebrfundimtar i administrat\u00ebs s\u00eb presidentit amerikan Donald Trump?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Duke mos qen\u00eb mjaftuesh\u00ebm t\u00eb k\u00ebnaqura me politik\u00ebn e \u201cpresionit maksimal\u201d, Shtetet e Bashkuara tani duket se synojn\u00eb neutralizimin e plot\u00eb t\u00eb Iranit si fuqi rajonale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P\u00ebr muaj me radh\u00eb, Trumpi kishte pohuar se q\u00ebllimi i tij ishte nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje e re b\u00ebrthamore. Por, si\u00e7 v\u00ebren Michael Horowitz, ekspert i pavarur i mbrojtjes me baz\u00eb n\u00eb Izrael, rruga diplomatike kishte arritur praktikisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb qorrsokak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cNegociatat midis Uashingtonit dhe Teheranit qartazi nuk po funksiononin n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn q\u00eb do t\u00eb d\u00ebshironte Trumpi\u201d, tha Horowitz p\u00ebr Radion Evropa e Lir\u00eb. \u201cHendeku \u00ebsht\u00eb thjesht shum\u00eb i madh p\u00ebr t\u2019u kap\u00ebrcyer p\u00ebrmes bisedimeve\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sipas tij, zyrtar\u00ebt iranian\u00eb nuk ishin t\u00eb gatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb ofronin l\u00ebshime q\u00eb do t\u2019i lejonin Trumpit ta \u201cshiste\u201d nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb re si pasardh\u00ebse m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjes b\u00ebrthamore nga e cila ai u t\u00ebrhoq n\u00eb vitin 2018. Me diplomacin\u00eb e shteruar, Uashingtoni ka kaluar te forca si instrumenti kryesor i ndryshimit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A do t\u00eb ngrihet populli?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nj\u00eb shtyll\u00eb qendrore e strategjis\u00eb amerikano-izraelite duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb shpresa p\u00ebr nj\u00eb kryengritje t\u00eb brendshme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00eb fjalimin e tij t\u00eb 28 shkurtit, Trumpi shkoi m\u00eb tej se mesazhet e m\u00ebhershme amerikane, duke iu drejtuar drejtp\u00ebrdrejt popullit iranian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Duke deklaruar se \u201cora e liris\u00eb suaj po afron\u201d, ai u b\u00ebri thirrje qytetar\u00ebve t\u00eb \u201cmarrin n\u00eb dor\u00eb\u201d qeverin\u00eb e tyre pasi t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb faza ushtarake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gjat\u00eb luft\u00ebs 12-ditore me Izraelin qershorin e kaluar, thirrje t\u00eb ngjashme p\u00ebr p\u00ebrmbysjen e udh\u00ebheqjes klerike u injoruan, nd\u00ebrsa civil\u00ebt i dhan\u00eb p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsi mbijetes\u00ebs dhe k\u00ebrkuan strehim. K\u00ebt\u00eb her\u00eb, megjithat\u00eb, aleat\u00ebt duket se po llogarisin n\u00eb nj\u00eb terren ndryshe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Jason Brodsky, drejtor politikash n\u00eb organizat\u00ebn \u201cUnited Against Nuclear Iran\u201d (UANI), nj\u00eb grup avokues me baz\u00eb n\u00eb SHBA q\u00eb punon p\u00ebr t\u00eb parandaluar Teheranin nga sigurimi i arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore, argumenton se dob\u00ebsimi i duksh\u00ebm i fuqis\u00eb s\u00eb shtetit mund t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbej\u00eb si katalizatori q\u00eb ka munguar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cNj\u00eb nga shpresat e fushat\u00ebs duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb q\u00eb populli iranian t\u00eb dal\u00eb n\u00eb rrug\u00eb dhe t\u00eb b\u00ebhet m\u00eb i guximsh\u00ebm n\u00eb sfidimin e regjimit, duke e par\u00eb at\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebsuar\u201d, tha Brodsky p\u00ebr Radion Evropa e Lir\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ai shtoi se synimi \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201cbarazimi i fush\u00ebs s\u00eb loj\u00ebs\u201d, duke dob\u00ebsuar aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e shtetit p\u00ebr t\u00eb shtypur mospajtimin, duke i dh\u00ebn\u00eb teorikisht \u201cpopullit t\u00eb paarmatosur iranian\u201d mund\u00ebsin\u00eb ta rimarr\u00eb vendin e vet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Horowitz, megjithat\u00eb, ofron nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim m\u00eb t\u00eb kujdessh\u00ebm p\u00ebr rolin e rrug\u00ebs si faktor vendimtar. Ai thekson se, ndon\u00ebse zyrtar\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb dhe izraelit\u00eb nuk e kan\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtuar mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e protestave t\u00eb reja, koha mund t\u00eb mos p\u00ebrputhet me pritjet e tyre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cPersonalisht mendoj se gjasat jan\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta p\u00ebr aq koh\u00eb sa konflikti vazhdon\u201d, paralajm\u00ebroi Horowitz. \u201c\u00cbsht\u00eb m\u00eb realiste t\u00eb pritet nj\u00eb rritje e trazirave pas p\u00ebrfundimit t\u00eb konfliktit, ndon\u00ebse regjimi, n\u00ebse ende \u00ebsht\u00eb i aft\u00eb, do t\u00eb jet\u00eb gjithashtu i p\u00ebrgatitur\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ndarja e roleve<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kryerja taktike e sulmeve tregon nj\u00eb ndarje t\u00eb koordinuar t\u00eb roleve mes dy aleat\u00ebve, duke v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb sh\u00ebnjest\u00ebr si kapacitetet ushtarake t\u00eb Iranit, ashtu edhe udh\u00ebheqjen e tij.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sipas Brodskyt, Shtetet e Bashkuara \u201cpo p\u00ebrqendrohen n\u00eb dob\u00ebsimin e kapaciteteve raketore t\u00eb Iranit\u201d p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbutur kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigjen, nd\u00ebrsa Izraeli po fokusohet n\u00eb \u201celiminimin e udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsve iranian\u00eb\u201d, nj\u00eb strategji q\u00eb pasqyrohet n\u00eb raportimet p\u00ebr sulme ndaj rezidencave t\u00eb liderit suprem, Ajatollah Ali Khamenei, dhe presidentit Masud Pezeshkian.
Pavar\u00ebsisht faz\u00ebs fillestare me intensitet t\u00eb lart\u00eb, pyetja qendrore mbetet n\u00ebse vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb fushat\u00eb ajrore mund t\u00eb rr\u00ebzoj\u00eb nj\u00eb teokraci 47-vje\u00e7are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Horowitz beson se fuqia ajrore ka nj\u00eb \u201chistori t\u00eb dob\u00ebt\u201d kur b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr arritjen e ndryshimit t\u00eb regjimit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Megjithat\u00eb, ai p\u00ebrmend nj\u00eb variab\u00ebl q\u00eb mund ta b\u00ebj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb konflikt ndryshe: gatishm\u00ebrin\u00eb e dukshme t\u00eb Trumpit p\u00ebr p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cNuk do ta p\u00ebrjashtoja mund\u00ebsin\u00eb, duke pasur parasysh sa e dob\u00ebt \u00ebsht\u00eb Republika Islamike dhe faktin q\u00eb presidenti Trump duket i gatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb p\u00ebrballoj\u00eb disa goditje dhe t\u00eb zhvilloj\u00eb nj\u00eb fushat\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb\u201d, tha Horowitz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00eb fund, q\u00ebllimi p\u00ebrfundimtar mund t\u00eb varet se sa shpejt mund t\u00eb \u00e7armatoset Irani nga kapacitetet e tij. N\u00ebse aft\u00ebsia e tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb l\u00ebshuar raketa hakmarr\u00ebse ose p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkaktuar tronditje ekonomike globale neutralizohet her\u00ebt, Uashingtoni mund t\u00eb ndjehet i inkurajuar t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb p\u00ebrpara, derisa Republika Islamike ose t\u00eb heq\u00eb dor\u00eb nga identiteti i saj thelb\u00ebsor, ose t\u00eb shembet n\u00ebn presionin e trazirave t\u00eb brendshme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ndon\u00ebse retorika e Trumpit ka l\u00ebvizur mes thirrjeve p\u00ebr nj\u00eb \u201cmarr\u00ebveshje m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb\u201d dhe sinjaleve p\u00ebr ndryshim regjimi, fjalimi i tij i 28 shkurtit sugjeron nj\u00eb ndryshim rr\u00ebnj\u00ebsor t\u00eb strategjis\u00eb.\/REL<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a9\ufe0fz\u00ebrionline<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Pas disa jav\u00ebsh tensione me Iranin dhe nj\u00eb grumbullimi t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb forcave ushtarake amerikane, situata \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzuar t\u00eb shtun\u00ebn me sulme t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebta amerikano-izraelite ndaj objektivave t\u00eb profilit t\u00eb lart\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb baza ushtarake iraniane dhe rezidencat e drejtuesve m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb vendit. Teksa vala e par\u00eb e sulmeve sh\u00ebnjestroi pika t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme n\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15552,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mendimi-yt"],"yoast_head":"\n